Central is the most defensible single figure. Low and High set every assumption to its extreme at the same time, so the true value is unlikely to sit at either end. Use the case switch at the top to see each.
Who works where in the value chain
Structure from the Deliverable 2 value chain map. The orange rule under each tile is scaled to direct jobs. Dashed tiles have no data yet. Select a category for its codes, jobs and enterprises.
Where the money is made
Gross output by line of activity, in UGX billion a year. Post-production and equipment hire are paid out of production budgets, so they are not counted twice.
Gross output, core sector
Revenue by window
Free-to-air TV, local OTT, non-theatrical, export and catalogue income are not measured anywhere. They are excluded from every total.
Two ways to measure value added
Bottom-up multiplies output by value-added ratios. Top-down starts from UBOS national accounts (Information and communication is 1.8% of GDP; Arts, entertainment and recreation 0.2%) and applies estimated film shares. Bars show the selected case; thin lines show the Low to High range, and › marks a High value beyond the scale.
Value added by stage
A livelihoods sector more than a GDP sector
Direct jobs by role group
Jobs supported across the economy
Indirect jobs are in suppliers: hotels, transport, catering, set construction, equipment, printing, legal and security. Induced jobs come from workers spending their pay. Ratios are set at or below South Africa's measured film multipliers (NFVF 2017), because Uganda imports more of its inputs.
Cross-checks on direct jobs
A thin tax base, by structure
Most film enterprises sit below the UGX 150 million VAT threshold or on presumptive tax. The gap below is what full formalisation would yield, not a revenue forecast.
Estimated tax paid, UGX billion a year
Actual vs full-compliance potential
Rates: VAT 18%, withholding 6%, corporate income tax 30%, PAYE bands to 30% (PwC Uganda Tax Data Card 2025/26); film equipment import duty 10% plus levies (NPA 2025). Compliance shares are estimates. URA can replace this whole panel with aggregates by activity code.
What policy could add by 2029
Baseline: no new policy, 9% nominal growth a year. NFIDP implemented: the proposed 2027 programme (28 films, 1,400 trained in seven regions), the proposed UGX 33.15bn National Film Fund and three regional hubs. Accelerated: NFIDP plus a foreign production incentive and single permit window. All programme figures are proposals, not approved funding.
Increment over baseline in 2029
The NFIDP's direct value-added effect is modest. Its stronger case is formal jobs, regional reach and the data it generates. The accelerated gain depends on foreign productions, which need an incentive and a film commission first.
Claims that do not survive the evidence
These numbers appear in sector documents and the press. None is used in this baseline.
Closing the data gaps in 2027
Ten instruments replace the estimates above with measured figures. The first four steps use data Government already holds.
Regions
The statistical regions are the six in the study brief. The seven programme regions are a proposed reconciliation pending PGU Board confirmation. Regional job and enterprise counts are a data gap.
Nineteen indicators linked to the NFIDP pillars
Method and sources
Grade A is official statistics, B official or institutional reports, C media or practitioner sources, D comparators from other countries used only to set ratio ranges.